1. In 2022 election, 8M Kenyans did not vote. With what’s happening, they will surely vote in 2027. Assuming these Kenyans turn out to vote, In fact, let us not say assuming, they will come to vote in larger numbers since they are angry. what % can vote the William Ruto!? Not more that 5%. That means, there will be 7.6 million for the alternative leadership.
2. Those who voted Ruto.
More than 50% of those who voted William Kipchirchir Ruto realized that he is a Conman and they will not vote him. This is close to 65%. With 90% of this group being Mt. Kenya voters. Since William got 7.1 million votes, he would again meeting face to face 4.61 Million votes having turned against him and for alternative leadership.
3. Consider Raila Amollo Odingas voters since 2007 including myself.
Azimio voters are likely to turn out to vote him but not more than 45% of the votes he got will be retained since some votes Raila did not get for himself but through Azimio Affiliate partys such as Jubilee and Uhuru’s Support. But remember without Raila on the ballot and lack of enthusiasm and unwillingness to vote anyone else apart from Raila.
the those who will stick to where Raila Directs them from his traditional voters/support Base will be drop from 2022’s 65% to like 35%. So Ruto can get 35% of 65% of Raila’s 2022 support. Thats another 4.48 Million Votes against Ruto again going for alternative leadership.
With those facts, William has no control of 16.69 votes, therefore, it will be an uphill task for William Ruto to get 3m votes in 2027. So if all factors are held constant, he is a one term president.
How is William Ruto trying to manage this imminent fall? He continues to sponsor people in the social media to say that he has gathered enough money to rig the elections. This many not work for him since he may have the money but he doesn’t have time to rig over 10 Million votes in 12 hours which means he has to rig 833,334 votes per hour since poles open at 6am and close at 6pm.
He also need someone more sophisticated than Chebukati yet we have reliable information that Chebukati’s Spirit which came from former IEBC cannot be incarnated into the new IEBC chair since he died before the next one was elected. He is also developing a narrative that if he won when he was incumbent what can stop him when he is on the seat? This doesn’t hold water since he went into the previous election without the burden of incumbency.
Everything bad was blamed on Uhuru- Raila handshake which didn’t incorporate strangers into the cabinet while for him he carries the burden of incumbency by the name of broken promises, several scandals, abductions, Genz Protests, broad-based government, failed AUC contest, mismanagement of the economy, grossly incompetent and grossly corrupt government. With all these, it will be harder since it was hard for Kibaki who revived the Kenyan economy to win the elections.
He is also gathering lots of retired, tired and retarred politicians around him who will act as poster boys for him to rig elections as he pretends that he was supported. I have reliable information where President is thinking to get these votes through rigging.
However, he is not lucky from some part of it especially Coast Province that has become my stronghold, forget about the propaganda that the Somalis will make him president and the refugee numbers. Nevertheless, everything is possible with Enough money, Time and Luck, but who has them? Ruto doesn’t have luck since the Gods have refused no wonder whatever he puts his hands on flops
. SHA, Adani, University Funding model, CBS, Hustler, Affordable housing, AUC among others. He doesn’t have time since one is limited by 12 hours of polls. As the Convener of J-25, Mwanzo Mya Movement, we know that these narratives wont work, the government fears us.
Let us mobilize for ID registration and Voter turnout since we want to win through the ballot in a free and fair election since we believe we shall build a welfare state, Taifa Ya Ustawi.
