Kenya’s 2022 presidential election will go down in history as one of the most controversial and strategically executed elections. While many attribute William Ruto’s victory to his political brilliance, a deeper analysis suggests that his triumph was more a product of Wafula Chebukati’s mastery of electoral laws and loopholes than Ruto’s personal genius. Chebukati, the former chairman of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), understood how to maneuver within the grey areas of the law, ensuring a legally compliant yet flawed election process.
This article delves into how Chebukati manipulated Kenya’s weak electoral framework to hand Ruto a disputed victory, why Ruto’s governance has failed to replicate this “brilliance,” and how the opposition is preparing to neutralize such tactics in the future.
Chebukati’s Role in Delivering Ruto’s Victory
Kenya’s electoral laws, though detailed, contain loopholes that can be exploited by a skilled legal mind. Chebukati’s expertise allowed him to navigate these gaps, ensuring that the election process adhered to legal requirements on the surface while still delivering a predetermined outcome. His approach ensured that any legal challenge, such as Raila Odinga’s petition, appeared weak and unfounded, reducing it to “hot air” in the eyes of the Supreme Court.
The 2017 Precedent and Lessons Learned
In 2017, the Supreme Court, led by Chief Justice David Maraga, nullified the presidential election, citing illegalities and irregularities in the process. Maraga ruled that the process was more important than the outcome, setting a legal precedent that Chebukati carefully studied. When overseeing the 2022 election, he ensured that, at least on the surface, every procedure was followed to avoid nullification, even if the election’s integrity was compromised.
Legal Compliance Without Fairness
Chebukati’s approach was not about delivering a free and fair election but about ensuring that the process ticked the right legal boxes. The result was an election that met the legal threshold but failed the fairness test. This legalistic strategy protected Ruto’s victory from legal challenges while making it seem legitimate in the eyes of the international community.
Why Ruto’s Brilliance Ends at Elections
Many have praised Ruto as a political genius for outmaneuvering Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta, who had the backing of the state machinery. However, his struggles in governance reveal a different story. If Ruto’s victory was solely based on his intelligence, why has he failed to apply the same level of strategy and execution in running the country?
The Absence of a ‘Chebukati’ in Governance
Unlike the electoral process, governance does not rely on legal maneuvering alone. The delivery of government projects such as the Hustler Fund, the University Funding Model, Affordable Housing, and Universal Healthcare requires effective policy implementation, not just legal compliance. Without a figure like Chebukati to manipulate the system in his favor, Ruto has struggled to achieve tangible results.
The Failure to Deliver Key Government Projects
- Hustler Fund – Launched with great promise, the fund has faced major operational challenges, with many Kenyans struggling to access it.
- University Funding Model – The government’s shift from a capitation model to a student-centered funding system has sparked widespread discontent.
- Affordable Housing – The ambitious plan has encountered legal and logistical hurdles, with no clear roadmap for success.
- Adani Deal – Ruto’s push to work with the Indian conglomerate has raised more questions than answers, with concerns over transparency.
- CBC and SHA/SHIF Healthcare Reforms – Rushed policy changes without proper planning have led to confusion rather than improvement in service delivery.
- African Union Commission (AUC) Chairmanship for Raila Odinga – Despite his political maneuvering skills, Ruto has been unable to secure this crucial continental position for Raila.
Ruto’s inability to replicate his “electoral genius” in governance suggests that his success in the 2022 elections was not a testament to his brilliance but rather the effectiveness of Chebukati’s legal gymnastics.
The Opposition’s Plan to Counter Future Electoral Manipulation
Investing in Legal Expertise
Recognizing the role that legal manipulation played in Ruto’s victory, the opposition is now preparing to counter such tactics in future elections. A team of 300 Gen Z lawyers is already working on various scenarios to ensure that a repeat of the “Chebukati playbook” is neutralized.
Closing Electoral Loopholes
The opposition is advocating for electoral reforms that will address the weaknesses exploited in the 2022 elections. Key proposals include:
- Strengthening IEBC’s independence to prevent external influence.
- Enhancing transparency in vote tallying and transmission.
- Ensuring strict adherence to Supreme Court rulings on electoral integrity.
Preventing Another Chebukati Scenario
With Chebukati no longer at the helm of the IEBC, Ruto’s camp is in search of a new strategy to secure re-election. However, without a figure as legally astute as Chebukati, Ruto’s ability to manipulate future elections may be significantly diminished.
The 2022 Kenyan presidential election was not a product of Ruto’s political brilliance but of Chebukati’s legal maneuvering. By exploiting electoral loopholes, Chebukati delivered a legally compliant yet flawed election, making it nearly impossible to challenge in court. However, Ruto’s struggles in governance have exposed the limitations of his so-called genius—without a Chebukati-like figure to manipulate systems in his favor, his administration has largely failed to deliver on its promises.
As Kenya moves toward future elections, the opposition is determined to prevent another “Chebukati playbook” from shaping the country’s leadership. With legal experts preparing for all possible scenarios, the 2027 election may be the ultimate test of whether democracy in Kenya can triumph over legal trickery.
